Prognostic analytical markers for Hepatitis B

12 October, 2026

Viral load and transaminase levels are important indicators for assessing the prognosis of chronic hepatitis B. A study published in The Lancet found that an HBV DNA level above 2,000 IU/mL and elevated transaminases are associated with a higher risk of advanced liver disease. These markers can help guide patient monitoring and individualized treatment decisions.

Chronic hepatitis B is a disease that affects approximately 254 million people and is responsible for around 1,100,000 deaths per year (2022 data).

The World Health Organization has set the goal of eradicating viral hepatitis by 2030. To achieve this, it is necessary to reduce new cases of hepatitis B by 90% and hepatitis B-related mortality by 65%. However, because hepatitis B is often asymptomatic, only 13.4% of infected individuals are diagnosed, and only 19.5% receive treatment. Antiviral treatment for hepatitis B reduces the concentration of hepatitis B virus DNA, decreases the risk of developing liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, and improves the survival rates.

Which Markers Help Predict the Prognosis of Hepatitis B?

An article has been published in The Lancet evaluating the influence of viral load and transaminase levels on the prognosis and progression of hepatitis B. The study found that patients with chronic hepatitis B who have an HBV-DNA concentration above 2,000 IU/ml are five to seven times more likely to develop advanced liver disease over time. The study also analyzed the usefulness of transaminase levels for predicting chronic hepatitis B. It found that individuals with transaminase levels above the upper limit of normal were approximately eight times more likely to develop advanced liver disease compared to those with normal transaminase levels.

Finally, they evaluated the simultaneous prognostic value of HBV-DNA concentration and transaminase levels. Patients with chronic hepatitis B who had a viral load below 2,000 IU/ml and normal transaminase levels had a better prognosis than the rest.

The physicians at our foundation and Dr. Carreño always take HBV-DNA  concentration and transaminase levels into account when deciding on the individual treatment for each patient.

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